Get a full preview of the 2025 Mallorca Championships final featuring Moutet vs Griekspoor. Includes head‑to‑head, form analysis, odds, prediction and FAQs.
The 2025 Mallorca Championships ATP 250 final on grass pits Moutet vs Griekspoor in what promises to be a compelling showdown at Santa Ponsa Tennis Academy.
Match Details
Fixture: Corentin Moutet vs (4) Tallon Griekspoor
Date: Saturday, 28 June 2025
Surface: Grass
Tournament: Mallorca Championships (ATP 250)
Player Form & Road to Final
Corentin Moutet
France’s Moutet has surged, reaching his first ATP final since Doha 2020. After a comeback win over Pedro Martinez (4‑6, 6‑3, 6‑0), he edged Daniel Altmaier in two tie-breaks and ousted Learner Tien (6‑2, 7‑5) before beating Alex Michelsen 6‑4, 7‑6(3) in the semis. His lefty court craft, drop shots, lobs and mental resilience have been key on grass.
Tallon Griekspoor
The Dutch No. 34, and fourth seed, stormed past qualifier Ethan Quinn and then beat Gabriel Diallo in the quarters. In the semis he took down Felix Auger‑Aliassime 6‑4, 6‑4, holding all break points and dominating his serve. This is his second final of 2025, following runner-up at Marrakech.
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Head-to-Head Record
This will be their third career meeting. Griekspoor has won both prior encounters, including a straight sets win in Antwerp qualifiers and a Challenger match in Orleans back in 2018. Moutet has yet to beat him, making Griekspoor the clear pre-match favourite.
Performance on Grass
Moutet boasts an 8‑2 grass record this season, showcasing strong serve percentages and consistent pressure in tie-breaks. Griekspoor stands 25‑12 on grass and recently claimed his first grass ATP title at the 2023 Libema Open.
Major betting platforms have Griekspoor as the near-favourite, with odds around 1.44 compared to Moutet’s 2.50–3.01 range
A simulation model assigns Griekspoor a 58% win probability . Given his superior grass pedigree, unblemished h2h record, and strong service stats (holding 97% this week), the prediction leans to Griekspoor in straight sets. However, Moutet’s drop shots and left-hand angles make a competitive match and possible tie-break likely, with total games expected to exceed 23.5 .
Prediction Pick:
Tallon Griekspoor in straight sets, with over 23.5 games on the board.
FAQs
Will this be the first ATP final meeting between Moutet and Griekspoor?
No, they’ve played twice before but only in qualifiers and Challenger events in 2018. Griekspoor leads 2–0 .
Who has the better grass‑court record in 2025?
Griekspoor is 25‑12, while Moutet is a strong 8‑2 this season on grass
What are the betting odds for the match?
Griekspoor is around 1.44, with Moutet in the 2.50–3.01 range across various bookmakers
Is Moutet’s left‑hand variation key to his game?
Yes. Moutet uses a crafty one- or two-handed backhand, frequent underarm serves, drop shots and lobs — tools that have disturbed higher-ranked opponents
Why is total games projected to be high?
Both players have high serve-hold rates (Griekspoor 97%, Moutet 87%), meaning break chances are rare. That often leads to tie-breaks and longer sets .
This final serves as a perfect tune-up ahead of Wimbledon. If Griekspoor’s serve holds and he remains composed, he’ll likely lift his second grass-court ATP trophy. Moutet, meanwhile, has the skill set to push the match deep, adding intrigue to the showdown.
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